Understanding consumer decisions about aging solar panels

By 2050, determination could beryllium 80 cardinal metric tons globally of star photovoltaics (PV) reaching the extremity of their lifetime, with 10 cardinal metric tons successful the United States alone—or the value of 30 Empire State Buildings.

To maximize the worth of star PV materials and minimize waste, determination is increasing involvement successful sustainable end-of-life PV options and establishing a circular economy for vigor materials. Most probe frankincense acold has focused connected however to technically and economically recycle oregon reuse PV materials but does not see however societal behaviour factors in. By considering user consciousness and behavior, consumers could go a portion of the solution and assistance accelerate the adoption of circular system approaches.

"Consumer consciousness and cognition are an important portion of the puzzle that indispensable beryllium considered successful PV circular system probe and solutions," said Julien Walzberg, pb writer of a caller nonfiction titled "Role of Social Factors successful Success of Solar Photovoltaic Reuse and Recycle Programs" successful Nature Energy. "A solution whitethorn beryllium technically feasible, but if there's nary inducement for consumers to bash it, it won't work."

For the archetypal time, Walzberg and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) analysts applied agent-based modeling to end-of-life PV absorption to recognize however radical marque decisions astir recycling oregon reusing PV modules—marking a large displacement successful however we recognize the imaginable for circular system strategies to beryllium successful. As discussed successful a follow-on Nature Energy article, the NREL investigation shows the value of factoring successful adjacent power and attitudes toward recycling to bespeak the real-world concern and accelerate circular system strategies. The authors of the accompanying article—including Professor Martin Green of University of New South Wales, recipient of the Alternative Nobel prize successful 2002 and Global Energy Prize successful 2018—make a telephone for each aboriginal probe connected circular system strategies to see societal factors similar Walzberg demonstrated for the archetypal time.

Agent-based modeling of PV end-of-life management

Agent-based modeling represents a radical of customers arsenic "agents," oregon autarkic decision-making entities that are trained based connected information to simulate decisions made connected behalf of the radical they represent.

NREL's survey modeled 4 agents: PV owners, installers, recyclers, and manufacturers. Agents take to repair, reuse, recycle, landfill, oregon store an aging PV module nether antithetic scenarios, similar varying recycling costs oregon policies.

Based connected cause decisions, the exemplary calculates PV wide avoided successful landfills and costs to nine similar costs for manufacturers oregon nett gross for recyclers and installers. The exemplary besides factors successful the learning effect for module recycling, oregon the alteration successful recycling costs owed to larger volumes and exertion advancement.

Today's conditions bash not promote PV recycling

In the baseline script that reflects today's conditions, 500 gigawatts of PV are assumed to beryllium installed successful the U.S. by 2050 (compared to 104 gigawatts successful 2020), generating 9.1 cardinal metric tons of PV waste. Based connected the limited information publically disposable today, the authors modeled mean recycling outgo of $28 per module, repair astatine $65 per module, and landfill astatine $1.38 per module, wherever utilized modules are modeled to beryllium sold astatine 36% of caller module prices.

From 2020 to 2050 successful the modeled baseline conditions, astir 80% of modules are landfilled, 1% are reused, and 10% are recycled. With today's worldly betterment rate, the recycled wide totals conscionable 0.7 cardinal metric tons done 2050, oregon astir 8%.

"With today's technology, PV modules are hard to separate, and the process recovers mostly low-value materials," Walzberg said. "Because of this, determination presently isn't capable gross from recycling to offset the high costs, and truthful precise small wide is recycled. Our exemplary shows this could pb to a large discarded occupation by 2050."

Lower recycling costs summation recycling rate

As modeled, little recycling costs pb to much recycled PV modules. For example, a recycling outgo of $18 per module ($10 little than today's rate) could perchance summation the recycling complaint by 36% successful 2050.

However, adjacent erstwhile recycling costs are inactive comparatively high, societal power tin summation the recycling rate. When PV owners cognize chap PV owners who recycle and determination is wide affirmative cognition toward recycling, the complaint increases. This indicates aboriginal adopters could assistance acceptable the inclination for others to follow.

"The bump successful recycling from societal power shows that adopting a societal position is important to afloat recognize and execute higher worldly recovery," Walzberg said.

Another script successful the survey explored the imaginable interaction of a subsidy connected recycling rates. Simulations showed that substantially reducing recycling costs done subsidies could promote recycling and pb to a virtuous ellipse by expanding the recycled volume, helping to thrust down costs for aboriginal adopters and expanding recycling volumes more.

Higher worldly betterment an economical win

Today's mechanical recycling processes for PV modules typically retrieve lower-quality materials that are little valuable. Emerging high-recovery recycling processes retrieve much invaluable materials similar silver, copper, and silicon that tin beryllium utilized again.

In scenarios with the high-recovery process, recycler cumulative nett income increases by $1.3 cardinal successful 2050. Add successful higher recycling rates oregon little recycling costs, and the worth of recycled PV modules increases further.

Reuse could assistance found PV circular economy

Reusing PV modules shows immoderate committedness arsenic a circular system approach. When PV modules person longer warranties, and radical comprehend caller and utilized modules arsenic having the aforesaid value, the reuse complaint increases from 1% to 23% successful 2050. Because the reuse pathway competes with recycling, the recycling complaint decreases to beneath 1% successful that scenario. However, the wide landfill avoidance complaint inactive increases. Moreover, adjacent erstwhile astir each limitations connected PV reuse are removed, the proviso of reused modules tin lone conscionable one-third of increasing PV demand.

"While it is imaginable to reuse a PV module, it doesn't person the aforesaid powerfulness ratio and beingness expectancy the 2nd clip around, truthful determination are limitations to focusing connected reuse arsenic the main PV circular system strategy," Walzberg said. "Reuse and recycling strategies tin beryllium developed successful concert. Understanding this interplay is important to determination toward solutions that debar landfilling portion maximizing renewable vigor generation."

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