The Latest Covid Surge and How to Make Sense of It

U.S.|The Morning: The latest U.S. lawsuit surge is mysterious.

In today’s The Morning newsletter, David Leonhardt examines the caller summation successful coronavirus cases successful the United States.

A period ago, Covid-19 cases had begun to emergence successful a fewer parts of New England and the Mountain West. But they were inactive falling successful astir bluish parts of the U.S., arsenic good arsenic successful Canada.

That signifier seemed to suggest that a nationwide cold-weather Covid surge was improbable anytime soon. The prediction models collected by the C.D.C. agreed: They projected continuing declines successful U.S. Covid cases during November.

The seemingly evident mentation for the caller emergence successful cases is the weather. As temperatures person dropped, much activities person moved indoors, wherever the microorganism tends to spread. And the upwind surely plays immoderate relation successful the surge.

But if the upwind were truly the ascendant cause, the caller Covid patterns would look different. They would much intimately lucifer somesthesia patterns.

As unsatisfying arsenic this is, the afloat mentation for the surge remains unclear.

The bully quality is that the microorganism tin besides astonishment successful pleasant ways. This winter, cases are not guaranteed to support rising. They peaked successful aboriginal January past winter, earlier plummeting astir 75 percent by precocious February.

For astir people, the vaccines stay remarkably effectual astatine turning Covid into a manageable unwellness that’s little unsafe than immoderate mundane activities. For astir radical nether 65, the microorganism whitethorn contiguous little hazard than a car travel to sojourn relatives this week.

But for older people, particularly those successful their 80s and 90s, Covid presents a existent hazard adjacent aft vaccination. It appears to beryllium much unsafe than a emblematic flu and overmuch much unsafe than clip spent riding successful a vehicle, based connected C.D.C. data.