As Hopes for Nuclear Deal Fade, Iran Rebuilds and Risks Grow

WASHINGTON — Over the past 20 months, Israeli quality operatives person assassinated Iran’s main atomic scientist and triggered large explosions astatine 4 Iranian atomic facilities, hoping to cripple the centrifuges that nutrient atomic substance and hold the time erstwhile Tehran’s caller authorities mightiness beryllium capable to physique a bomb.

But American quality officials and planetary inspectors accidental the Iranians person rapidly gotten the facilities backmost online — often installing newer machines that tin enrich uranium astatine a acold much accelerated pace. When a works that made cardinal centrifuge parts suffered what looked similar a crippling detonation successful precocious outpouring — destroying overmuch of the parts inventory and the cameras and sensors installed by planetary inspectors — accumulation resumed by precocious summer.

One elder American authoritative wryly called it Tehran’s Build Back Better plan.

That punch and counterpunch are lone portion of the escalation successful caller months betwixt Iran and the West, a confrontation that is astir to travel to a head, erstwhile again, successful Vienna. For the archetypal clip since President Ebrahim Raisi took bureau this past summer, Iranian negotiators program to conscionable with their European, Chinese and Russian counterparts astatine the extremity of the period to sermon the aboriginal of the 2015 atomic statement that sharply constricted Iran’s activities.

American officials person warned their Israeli counterparts that the repeated attacks connected Iranian atomic facilities whitethorn beryllium tactically satisfying, but they are yet counterproductive, according to respective officials acquainted with the behind-the-scenes discussions. Israeli officials person said they person nary volition of letting up, waving distant warnings that they whitethorn lone beryllium encouraging a sped-up rebuilding of the programme — 1 of galore areas successful which the United States and Israel disagree connected the benefits of utilizing diplomacy alternatively than force.

At the Vienna meeting, American officials volition beryllium successful the metropolis but not wrong the country — due to the fact that Iran volition not conscionable with them aft President Donald J. Trump pulled retired of the accord much than 3 years ago, leaving the woody successful tatters. While 5 months agone those officials seemed optimistic that the 2015 woody was astir to beryllium restored, with the substance mostly agreed upon, they instrumentality to Vienna acold much pessimistic than erstwhile they past near it, successful mid-June. Today that substance looks dead, and President Biden’s imaginativeness of re-entering the statement successful his archetypal year, past gathering thing “longer and stronger,” appears each but gone.

It is simply a motion of the changed temper that Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s recently appointed main atomic negotiator, does not notation to the upcoming talks arsenic atomic negotiations astatine all. Mr. Bagheri Kani, a lawman overseas minister, said successful Paris past week that “we person nary specified happening arsenic atomic negotiations.” Instead, helium refers to them arsenic “negotiations to region unlawful and inhuman sanctions.” Iran says it volition importune connected the lifting of some atomic and non-nuclear sanctions, and that it needs a warrant that nary aboriginal president could unilaterally wantonness the agreement, arsenic Mr. Trump did. Biden medication officials accidental the president would ne'er marque specified a commitment.

Iran, arsenic always, denies that it has immoderate volition of ever gathering a atomic weapon. But the much apt script is that it wants a “threshold capability” — 1 that would permission it capable to nutrient a limb successful weeks oregon months, if it felt the need.

Robert Malley, the State Department’s Iran envoy, said precocious that portion “it is successful Iran’s hands to choose” which way to take, the United States and different allies request to beryllium prepared for whichever prime Tehran makes.

He noted that Mr. Biden and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken “have some said if diplomacy fails, we person different tools — and we volition usage different tools to forestall Iran from acquiring a atomic weapon.”

But wrong the White House, determination has been a scramble successful caller days to research whether immoderate benignant of interim woody mightiness beryllium imaginable to frost Iran’s accumulation of much enriched uranium and its conversion of that substance to metallic signifier — a indispensable measurement successful fabricating a warhead. In return, the United States mightiness easiness a constricted fig of sanctions, including humanitarian aid. That would not lick the problem. But it mightiness bargain clip for negotiations, portion holding disconnected Israeli threats to weaponry Iranian facilities.

Buying time, possibly tons of it, whitethorn beryllium essential. Many of Mr. Biden’s advisers are doubtful that introducing caller sanctions connected Iran’s leadership, its subject oregon its lipid commercialized — atop the 1,500 Mr. Trump imposed — would beryllium immoderate much palmy than past efforts to unit Iran to alteration course.

And much assertive steps that were palmy years agone whitethorn not output the benignant of results they person successful mind. Inside the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command, determination is statement that it is overmuch harder present to propulsion disconnected the benignant of cyberattack that the United States and Israel conducted much than a decennary ago, erstwhile a concealed operation, code-named “Olympic Games,” crippled centrifuges astatine the Natanz atomic enrichment tract for much than a year.

Current and erstwhile American and Israeli officials enactment that the Iranians person since improved their defenses and built their ain cyberforces, which the medication warned past week were progressively progressive wrong the United States.

The Iranians person besides continued to barroom inspectors from cardinal sites, contempt a bid of agreements with Rafael M. Grossi, the caput of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ watchdog, to sphere information from the agency’s sensors astatine cardinal locations. The inspectors’ cameras and sensors that were destroyed successful the works detonation successful precocious outpouring person not been replaced.

The inspection spread is peculiarly worrisome due to the fact that the Iranians are declaring that they person present produced astir 55 pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. That purity is beneath the 90 percent usually utilized to nutrient a weapon, but not by much. It is simply a level “that lone countries making bombs have,” Mr. Grossi said. “That doesn’t mean that Iran is doing that. But it means that it is precise high.”

And portion Iranian officials person fixed galore explanations for wherefore they are taking the measurement — for example, to substance naval atomic reactors, which Iran does not person — the existent crushed seems to beryllium to physique pressure.

This month, the spokesperson for Iran’s atomic vigor agency, Behrouz Kamalvandi, noted with pridefulness that lone countries with atomic weapons person shown that they tin enrich uranium to this level. (He is wrong: Several non-nuclear states person done so.)

“In this enactment now, if we person the will, we tin bash anything,” helium said.

Before Mr. Trump decided to scrap the deal, Iran had adhered to the limits of the 2015 statement — which by astir estimates kept it astir a twelvemonth from “breakout,” the constituent wherever it has capable worldly for a bomb. While estimates vary, that buffer is present down to determination betwixt 3 weeks and a fewer months, which would alteration the geopolitical calculation passim the Middle East.

But the medication spent 2 months determining however to attack a negotiation, and European officials kick that, successful retrospect, that mislaid clip proved damaging.

It was lone astatine the extremity of March that the 2 sides agreed to instrumentality to the table; the Vienna talks began successful aboriginal April. .

By June, an statement “was mostly complete,” 1 elder medication authoritative said. Then it became wide that Iran was stalling until its statesmanlike elections, which brought successful Mr. Raisi, a hard-line erstwhile caput of the judiciary.

Initially, American officials hoped Mr. Raisi would conscionable instrumentality the statement that had been negotiated, marque insignificant alterations and observe a lifting of astir Western sanctions. Anything that went wrong, they calculated, the caller president could blasted connected the erstwhile president and overseas minister.

But that proved a miscalculation. In precocious September, the country’s caller overseas minister, Hossain Amirabdollahian, told The New York Times that helium had nary involvement successful conducting the benignant of elaborate dialog that his predecessor had worked connected for years.

The spokesperson for Iran’s overseas ministry, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said astatine a caller quality league that Iran had 3 conditions for Washington to instrumentality to the deal: It indispensable admit to wrongdoing successful pulling retired of the deal, it indispensable assistance each sanctions astatine once, and it indispensable connection a warrant that nary different medication volition exit the woody arsenic Trump did.

While European officials accidental they bash not privation to see a “Plan B” if a standoff develops, a assortment of specified plans — ranging from economical isolation to sabotage — person been the regular taxable of meetings astatine the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department. Asked astir the Plan B discussions astatine a quality league much than 2 weeks ago, Mr. Biden paused a moment, past said, “I’m not going to remark connected Iran now.”

But the Israelis are commenting. This period Israel’s service main of staff, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, said the Israeli subject was “speeding up the operational plans and readiness for dealing with Iran and the atomic subject threat.” It was a notation to the information that the caller premier minister, Naftali Bennett, has authorized much backing for readying and practicing attacks. Israeli officials importune they person developed a bunker-busting capableness that obviates the request for the benignant of assistance they sought from the Bush medication 13 years ago. Whether that is existent oregon a bluff remains unclear.

At immoderate point, Biden medication officials accidental they whitethorn beryllium forced to state that Iran’s atomic programme is simply excessively precocious for anyone to safely instrumentality to the 2015 agreement. “This is not a chronological clock; it’s a technological clock,” Mr. Malley said successful a briefing past month. “At immoderate point,” helium added, the statement “will person been truthful eroded due to the fact that Iran volition person made advances that cannot beryllium reversed.”

He added: “You can’t revive a dormant corpse.”